It’s
uncertain what the following two big mountain stages will look like so the GC
riders need to take as much time as possible in this uphill time trial.
Many talk
about this stage as a ‘mountain time trial’ but that isn’t really accurate. It’s
uphill yes, but it’s nothing like the mountains time trials we have seen in the
past on Plan de Corones or Alpe d’Huez. The first 1.5 km are flat and then the
climb starts with 6.6% average for the following 7.5 km. From here on it’s almost
flat for 5 km with a little descent and a short ascent and this is where time
trial specialists will be able to gain a lot of time on the tiny climbers.
The final
6.4 km are uphill with an average gradient of about 7% and parts of 10% with 5
km to go. It’s important to have something left in the tank for this final part
of the stage and this late in the race, I’m sure we will see some surprising
results.
The big
favorite for the stage win is Vincenzo Nibali. He has been the best rider in
the mountains so far and generally the strongest rider in the race. He did
great in the first long time trial when he took 4th place and
without Wiggins, Nibali is the man to beat. Cadel Evans is another one of the
contenders for the stage win but he if he couldn’t beat Nibali in a long ‘flat’
time trial, I don’t see him beating Nibali uphill either. Both Evans and Nibali
have been out training on the course earlier this year and both agree that it’s
going to be a high pace start of the climb. The riders with big engines who are
good on the uphill parts will be able to do great in this time trial and I
think Team Blanco will do well.
The Dutch
team have been attacking non-stop the last couple of days and they really want
that stage win that will save their Giro d’Italia. Robert Gesink was close the
other day and so was Wilco Kelderman the day before that. Both Gesink and
Kelderman are strong against the clock - especially with so many uphill
kilometers - and together with Stef Clement, who took 5th place in
the first time trial, they have three very strong contenders for the stage win.
My personal
outsider for the win is Dario Cataldo. He started out great with the win in the
team time trial but then he got sick. It took many days for Cataldo to get
better but now he finally seems to be back at this best. He’s been good in the mountains
the last couple of days helping out Uran and Henao but he’s also been able to
save himself for this stage. Cataldo is the Italian Time Trial Champion and he
will be eager to show off that jersey in the Giro. Winning may be too much to
ask of Cataldo after his sickness but I wouldn’t be surprised if he did a great
stage and made Top3. The favorites have been testing each other the last couple
of days in horrible weather conditions and anyone who has been able to save
some energy will have an advantage on this stage.
For other
outsiders look to Ramunas Navardauskas and Tanel Kangert. Both are in the shape
of their life and good against the clock. The same goes for Giovanni Visconti.
He has already won two stage in this Giro d’Italia but that doesn’t mean he’s
done winning. Visconti has never been better than right now and with his newfound
strong mentality, he should have what it takes to win time trial soon. The last
days’ impressive efforts will not favor him but he should be in for another
good performance.
Favorite:
Vincenzo Nibali
Top3 Pick:
Cadel Evans
Jokers:
Dario Cataldo / Stef Clement / Ramunas Navardauskas
I promised you something extra for the Giro previews this year and here it is. In collaboration with GCN, you’ll find a short video preview of each stage of the race. Here is Stage 18:
For live coverage of the stage check out steephill.tv
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